{"id":116693,"date":"2025-06-10T18:28:43","date_gmt":"2025-06-11T00:28:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/?p=116693"},"modified":"2025-06-10T18:28:46","modified_gmt":"2025-06-11T00:28:46","slug":"fitch-ratings-advirtio-este-martes-que-mexico-se-perfila-hacia-una-recesion-economica-en-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/?p=116693","title":{"rendered":"Fitch Ratings\u00a0advirti\u00f3 este martes que\u00a0M\u00e9xico\u00a0se perfila hacia una\u00a0recesi\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica\u00a0en\u00a02025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Por Redacci\u00f3n QP<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La agencia calificadora espera que M\u00e9xico entre en recesi\u00f3n en 2025, mientras que otros pa\u00edses como Argentina experimentar\u00e1n un repunte<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fitch Ratings<\/strong> advirti\u00f3 este martes que M\u00e9xico<\/strong> se perfila hacia una recesi\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica<\/strong> en 2025<\/strong> al ser el pa\u00eds m\u00e1s vulnerable de Am\u00e9rica Latina a la incertidumbre comercial<\/strong> derivada del aumento de aranceles<\/strong> por parte de Estados Unidos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En su informe \u2018Perspectivas de los bonos soberanos globales a mitad de a\u00f1o 2025\u2019, Fitch mantuvo la perspectiva sectorial de Am\u00e9rica Latina como \u201cneutral\u201d, pero subray\u00f3 que el caso mexicano es at\u00edpico por su alta exposici\u00f3n al mercado estadounidense, lo que ya ha impactado negativamente sus proyecciones de crecimiento para este a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De hecho, la agencia calificadora espera que M\u00e9xico entre en recesi\u00f3n en 2025, mientras pa\u00edses como Argentina experimentar\u00e1n un repunte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPronosticamos un crecimiento regional del 2.1 por ciento en 2025, en l\u00ednea con 2024, ya que el repunte de Argentina compensa una desaceleraci\u00f3n en Brasil y una recesi\u00f3n en M\u00e9xico\u201d, se lee en el reporte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Todd Mart\u00ednez, codirector de deuda soberana de Am\u00e9rica Latina de Fitch destac\u00f3 que, si bien la regi\u00f3n latinoamericana \u201cest\u00e1 expuesta al proteccionismo comercial y a una mayor incertidumbre pol\u00edtica por parte de EE.UU.\u201d, M\u00e9xico es \u201cespecialmente vulnerable\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No obstante, contrast\u00f3 que los efectos de los aranceles impulsado por el presidente estadounidense Donald Trump podr\u00edan mitigarse \u201ccon un tratamiento arancelario m\u00e1s favorable en comparaci\u00f3n con otras regiones\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El comentario se enmarca en medio de las negociaciones que llevan a cabo el Gobierno de M\u00e9xico, encabezadas por el secretario de Econom\u00eda Marcelo Ebrard<\/strong>, quien sostiene reuniones semanales con su contraparte estadounidense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recientemente M\u00e9xico ha pedido a EE.UU. un trato favorable como su principal socio y parte del Tratado entre ambos pa\u00edses y Canad\u00e1<\/strong>, el T-MEC<\/strong>, mientras el gobierno estadounidense empuja aranceles al aluminio, acero, autopartes, autom\u00f3viles, entre otros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La agencia tambi\u00e9n enfatiz\u00f3 que la pol\u00edtica migratoria estadounidense \u201ces un riesgo\u201d, que podr\u00eda disminuir el flujo de remesas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En medio de esto, se perfila un impuesto del 3.5 por ciento a las remesas enviadas desde Estados Unidos y las recientes redada en California, que resultaron en la detenci\u00f3n de al menos 47 mexicanos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMarcos de pol\u00edtica prudentes, s\u00f3lidas posiciones externas y reservas deber\u00edan ayudar a la mayor\u00eda de los pa\u00edses de la regi\u00f3n a gestionar los riesgos, aunque no cuentan con un amplio margen de maniobra para pol\u00edticas antic\u00edclicas\u201d, abund\u00f3 el reporte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tambi\u00e9n anticip\u00f3 que las pol\u00edticas estadounidenses sobre la\u00a0inflaci\u00f3n<\/strong>\u00a0\u201cpodr\u00edan exigir tasas de inter\u00e9s m\u00e1s altas por parte de la\u00a0Reserva Federal\u00a0durante m\u00e1s tiempo, con repercusiones para la regi\u00f3n\u201d latinoamericana.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sin embargo, observ\u00f3 que la depreciaci\u00f3n del d\u00f3lar estadounidense \u201cha dado a los bancos centrales margen para seguir recortando las tasas o evitar un ajuste que, de otro modo, habr\u00eda sido necesario\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Con informaci\u00f3n de EFE<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Por Redacci\u00f3n QP La agencia calificadora espera que M\u00e9xico entre en recesi\u00f3n en 2025, mientras…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":116694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-116693","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nFitch Ratings\u00a0advirti\u00f3 este martes que\u00a0M\u00e9xico\u00a0se perfila hacia una\u00a0recesi\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica\u00a0en\u00a02025 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/?p=116693\" \/>\n<meta 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