{"id":112568,"date":"2024-09-17T18:11:57","date_gmt":"2024-09-17T18:11:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/?p=112568"},"modified":"2024-09-17T22:03:10","modified_gmt":"2024-09-17T22:03:10","slug":"el-quehacer-politico-en-las-finanzas-desentranando-los-movimientos-del-mercado-a-traves-de-pedro-tiburcio-la-fed-finalmente-iniciara-el-ciclo-de-baja-de-tasas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/?p=112568","title":{"rendered":"El Quehacer Pol\u00edtico en las Finanzas Desentra\u00f1ando los movimientos del mercado a trav\u00e9s de\/\/\/Pedro Tiburcio\/\/\/\u00bfLa FED finalmente iniciar\u00e1 el ciclo de baja de tasas?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Por Pedro Tiburcio<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Analista Financiero<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Este mi\u00e9rcoles 18 de septiembre de 2024, la Reserva Federal (FED) tomar\u00e1 una nueva decisi\u00f3n de pol\u00edtica monetaria, y las expectativas est\u00e1n puestas en que finalmente inicie el esperado ciclo de baja de tasas, que actualmente se encuentra en 5.5%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El mercado, como es habitual, ha estado anticipando esta decisi\u00f3n desde hace tiempo. Ya en el art\u00edculo del&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/?p=107017\">12 de diciembre de 2023<\/a>&nbsp;mencion\u00e9 c\u00f3mo el mercado descontaba una posible baja de tasas, lo cual se reflejaba en la ca\u00edda del rendimiento de la nota del Tesoro a 10 a\u00f1os (TNX).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El TNX es un \u00edndice que mide el rendimiento promedio de las notas del Tesoro de EE. UU. a 10 a\u00f1os, calculado con base en los precios que cotizan en la bolsa de valores de Chicago (CBOE). En la siguiente gr\u00e1fica, se puede ver c\u00f3mo TNX se encuentra llegando a la zona&nbsp;objetivo situada&nbsp;entre 3.62 y 3.24, lo cual confirma nuestras proyecciones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"927\" height=\"515\" src=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-48.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-112570\" srcset=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-48.jpeg 927w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-48-300x167.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-48-768x427.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-48-260x144.jpeg 260w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-48-50x28.jpeg 50w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-48-135x75.jpeg 135w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 927px) 100vw, 927px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Screenshot<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/nVQO862w\">https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/nVQO862w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oportunidades de inversi\u00f3n en bonos<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En aquel entonces, se abri\u00f3 una clara oportunidad para la compra de bonos, ya sea a trav\u00e9s del ETF AGG, que busca replicar el rendimiento de un \u00edndice compuesto por bonos de grado de inversi\u00f3n en EE. UU., o mediante el ETF TYD, que ofrece un rendimiento diario apalancado tres veces (3x) el movimiento del \u00edndice de referencia de bonos.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hasta la fecha, AGG ha alcanzado un rendimiento de +9.70% en d\u00f3lares, mientras que TYD ha generado un impresionante +27%. Estas ganancias ya han entrado en una zona de toma de beneficios, como se muestra en la siguiente gr\u00e1fica de seguimiento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"929\" height=\"518\" src=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-47.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-112569\" srcset=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-47.jpeg 929w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-47-300x167.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-47-768x428.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-47-260x146.jpeg 260w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-47-50x28.jpeg 50w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-47-135x75.jpeg 135w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 929px) 100vw, 929px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Screenshot<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/mE0nsNwG\">https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/mE0nsNwG<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Situaci\u00f3n en M\u00e9xico<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En M\u00e9xico, las tasas de inter\u00e9s altas han generado escenarios interesantes. Bancos digitales han llegado a ofrecer hasta un 15% anual de rendimiento, lo que ha despertado la conciencia financiera de muchas personas que antes aceptaban los bajos rendimientos de pagar\u00e9s bancarios tradicionales. Si bien opciones como los CETES han cobrado popularidad, para una parte significativa de la poblaci\u00f3n esto representa un gran paso hacia decisiones de inversi\u00f3n m\u00e1s informadas.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sin embargo, estos rendimientos no durar\u00e1n para siempre. Banxico ya ha iniciado su ciclo de baja de tasas, reduciendo la tasa de referencia de 11.25% en febrero a 10.75% en la actualidad, lo que est\u00e1 afectando gradualmente esos altos retornos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Impacto de las tasas en la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El ajuste en los mercados es inevitable, y la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV) no es la excepci\u00f3n. Las acciones m\u00e1s importantes del mercado mexicano han mostrado un ajuste significativo desde el&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ptiburon\/status\/1826305494384083057\/photo\/1\">8 de febrero de 2024<\/a>, principalmente por una toma de ganancias de los grandes participantes, no por los pron\u00f3sticos pesimistas que algunos comentaristas pol\u00edticos han esgrimido sobre la depreciaci\u00f3n del peso o la reforma judicial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Para los inversionistas en M\u00e9xico, recomiendo revisar el art\u00edculo del&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/?p=112409\">9 de septiembre de 2024<\/a>, donde se analiza el comportamiento del S&amp;P 500 en ciclos previos de baja de tasas de la FED.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adem\u00e1s, el art\u00edculo titulado &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/?p=110512\">El Precio de la Discordia<\/a>&#8221; muestra c\u00f3mo ha sido el rendimiento del mercado mexicano a lo largo de diferentes sexenios, y lo atractivo que puede ser invertir en&nbsp;el mercado mexicano&nbsp;sin dejarse llevar por fobias pol\u00edticas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Te invito a que me sigas en Twitter\/X &nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ptiburon\">@ptiburon<\/a>&nbsp;y te unas a mi canal de WhatsApp&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/460YKlM\">Trading sin L\u00edmites<\/a>&nbsp;para estar al tanto de una manera m\u00e1s puntual y recibir actualizaciones clave sobre los mercados financieros de mayor inter\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As\u00ed el Quehacer Pol\u00edtico en los mercados financieros a trav\u00e9s del an\u00e1lisis t\u00e9cnico con Pedro Tiburcio, desentra\u00f1ando los movimientos del mercado, 44 a\u00f1os inquiriendo en la pol\u00edtica de M\u00e9xico, cuestionando, exponiendo, revelando y razonando.Es cuanto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Que tengas una excelente semana de trading y recuerda:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a1Nos vemos en los mercados!&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hasta la pr\u00f3xima.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gr\u00e1ficas cortes\u00eda de&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/?aff_id=17896\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pedro Tiburcio<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Analista de Elliott Wave M\u00e9xico<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Por Pedro Tiburcio Analista Financiero Este mi\u00e9rcoles 18 de septiembre de 2024, la Reserva Federal&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":112571,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-112568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is 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