{"id":111063,"date":"2024-07-01T19:08:10","date_gmt":"2024-07-01T19:08:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/?p=111063"},"modified":"2024-07-01T19:08:12","modified_gmt":"2024-07-01T19:08:12","slug":"el-quehacer-politico-financiero-a-traves-del-analisis-tecnico-desentranando-los-mercados-en-el-mundo-financiero-pedro-tiburcio-resiliencia-del-peso-mexicano-navegando-la-volatilidad-del-merc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/?p=111063","title":{"rendered":"El Quehacer Pol\u00edtico financiero a trav\u00e9s del an\u00e1lisis t\u00e9cnico desentra\u00f1ando los mercados en el mundo financiero\/\/\/Pedro Tiburcio\/\/\/Resiliencia del\u00a0Peso Mexicano: Navegando la Volatilidad del Mercado en la Era Sheinbaum"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Por Pedro Tiburcio <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analista Financiero<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Finalmente, sabemos qui\u00e9n gobernar\u00e1 M\u00e9xico en los pr\u00f3ximos seis a\u00f1os. Para muchos, era evidente que la Dra. Claudia Sheinbaum arrasar\u00eda en estos comicios, y solo una minor\u00eda, influenciada por la propaganda de la derecha, manten\u00eda esperanzas en que su candidata, X\u00f3chitl G\u00e1lvez, limitada en varios sentidos, lograr\u00eda el triunfo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Desde hace tiempo, hemos aspirado a que este pa\u00eds sea gobernado por una persona con un alto nivel acad\u00e9mico. Hoy, eso se ha hecho realidad. Tambi\u00e9n hemos deseado una persona con amplia experiencia y, nuevamente, lo hemos conseguido. Adem\u00e1s, en una lucha sin precedentes, hemos pedido una mayor participaci\u00f3n de mujeres en puestos clave. Hoy, M\u00e9xico ser\u00e1 gobernado por una mujer con amplias capacidades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un peque\u00f1o grupo de la poblaci\u00f3n, a\u00fan influenciado por los medios tradicionales y periodistas anticuados, se resiste a aceptar las virtudes de la presidenta electa. Como cualquier mal perdedor, han abrazado la narrativa de que Claudia Sheinbaum ser\u00e1 un t\u00edtere del presidente Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A pesar de esta resistencia, la realidad es que el dinero inteligente y los grandes empresarios del pa\u00eds han dejado atr\u00e1s las diferencias pol\u00edticas y han acogido a la nueva administraci\u00f3n, cerrando filas y aprovechando las oportunidades de inversi\u00f3n que se vislumbran en el horizonte. Te invito sinceramente a hacer lo mismo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Como mencion\u00e9 en mi art\u00edculo del mes pasado, la historia demuestra que, independientemente de tu simpat\u00eda pol\u00edtica, el mercado burs\u00e1til de este pa\u00eds ha ofrecido grandes rendimientos de un sexenio a otro. En noviembre de 2023, hablamos sobre la madurez de la apreciaci\u00f3n del peso mexicano y la posibilidad de una reversi\u00f3n en el precio del d\u00f3lar hacia la zona de 18.9025. Finalmente, el d\u00f3lar encontr\u00f3 un l\u00edmite inferior en 16.2588, y al cierre de este art\u00edculo, el tipo de cambio USDMXN ha alcanzado un m\u00e1ximo de 18.9954.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La turbulencia no ha terminado, ya que tenemos las elecciones en Estados Unidos a la vuelta de la esquina y probablemente una disminuci\u00f3n en las tasas de inter\u00e9s por parte de la Fed en diciembre. Esto impactar\u00e1 en la fortaleza del peso mexicano debido a la volatilidad y al carry trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nos preparamos para dos escenarios:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. El mercado <\/strong>establezca<\/strong> un l\u00edmite superior<\/strong>, que, seg\u00fan nuestro an\u00e1lisis de datos, podr\u00eda haber alcanzado los 18.9954 pesos por d\u00f3lar, o en su defecto, los siguientes niveles clave al alza son 19.2032 y 19.7165.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.\u00a0Una lateralidad<\/strong>, es decir, que el tipo de cambio USDMXN cotice en un rango durante un periodo prolongado, como vimos desde enero de 2021 hasta octubre de 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Screenshot<\/figcaption><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Gr\u00e1fico cortes\u00eda de <\/em>tradingview<\/em>.<\/em>https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/5PoNDOG5\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Te invito a dejar de lado las fobias pol\u00edticas y a evitar quedar atrapado con d\u00f3lares caros bajo el argumento infundado de que el comunismo invade el pa\u00eds. Conc\u00e9ntrate en la informaci\u00f3n que proporciona el mercado, como con cualquier otro activo financiero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A pesar de que el precio del d\u00f3lar ha subido un 16% en tres meses desde su m\u00ednimo en 16.2588 hasta 18.9954, no hemos visto grandes cambios en el reporte del COT (Commitmentsof\u00a0Traders). Los especuladores y\u00a0Commercial\u00a0Traders\u00a0no han desarmado sus posiciones. De hecho, han comprado en esta ca\u00edda, como se observa en el gr\u00e1fico de\u00a0Barchart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Screenshot<\/figcaption><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Te invito a seguir de cerca la cotizaci\u00f3n del d\u00f3lar y a capitalizar la volatilidad del mercado. Mantente atento a mi pr\u00f3xima columna, donde presentar\u00e9 las mejores oportunidades en los mercados financieros. \u00a1Hasta la pr\u00f3xima!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pedro Tiburcio<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analista Senior de Elliott Wave M\u00e9xico<\/p>\n\n\n\n

@ptiburon twitter\/X<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Por Pedro Tiburcio Analista Financiero Finalmente, sabemos qui\u00e9n gobernar\u00e1 M\u00e9xico en los pr\u00f3ximos seis a\u00f1os….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":111066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-111063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nEl Quehacer Pol\u00edtico financiero a trav\u00e9s del an\u00e1lisis t\u00e9cnico desentra\u00f1ando los mercados en el mundo financiero\/\/\/Pedro Tiburcio\/\/\/Resiliencia del\u00a0Peso Mexicano: Navegando la Volatilidad del Mercado en la Era Sheinbaum -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/?p=111063\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_MX\" 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