{"id":109770,"date":"2024-05-06T14:46:16","date_gmt":"2024-05-06T14:46:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/?p=109770"},"modified":"2024-05-06T14:46:18","modified_gmt":"2024-05-06T14:46:18","slug":"el-quehacer-politico-financiero-desentranando-los-mercados-a-traves-pedro-tiburcio-el-peso-mexicano-un-nuevo-paradigma-economico-los-pronosticos-pesimistas-no-se-cumplieron","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/?p=109770","title":{"rendered":"El Quehacer Pol\u00edtico Financiero Desentra\u00f1ando los mercados a trav\u00e9s\/\/\/Pedro Tiburcio\/\/\/El peso mexicano: Un nuevo paradigma econ\u00f3mico? Los pron\u00f3sticos pesimistas no se cumplieron"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Por Pedro Tiburcio<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analista Financiero<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El d\u00f3lar estadounidense se debilita frente al peso mexicano, alcanzando un m\u00ednimo de 16.2588 el 9 de abril de 2024, el nivel m\u00e1s bajo en los \u00faltimos 8 a\u00f1os. Este fortalecimiento del peso ha desafiado las predicciones apocal\u00edpticas de los cr\u00edticos del gobierno actual, quienes pronosticaron un desastre econ\u00f3mico para M\u00e9xico bajo la presidencia de Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador en 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un cambio de paradigma.<\/strong> Hist\u00f3ricamente, los mexicanos han soportado la carga de un d\u00f3lar fuerte, resign\u00e1ndose a la depreciaci\u00f3n de sus empresas y productos en comparaci\u00f3n con sus contrapartes estadounidenses. Sin embargo, el fortalecimiento del peso mexicano ha generado preocupaciones entre los exportadores, quienes temen que sus negocios se vean afectados. Sin embargo, es crucial reconocer que, mientras el d\u00f3lar sea fuerte, los importadores tambi\u00e9n enfrentan desaf\u00edos al necesitar m\u00e1s pesos para realizar compras extranjeras.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cifras que hablan.<\/strong> No obstante, los \u00faltimos datos del INEGI en relaci\u00f3n con la Balanza Comercial como se muestra en la siguiente gr\u00e1fica muestran que la fortaleza del peso no ha tenido un efecto adverso en las exportaciones, las cuales han registrado un crecimiento del 13%. Esto indica que el pa\u00eds est\u00e1 entrando en una nueva etapa econ\u00f3mica, donde el peso mexicano juega un papel m\u00e1s importante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Este cambio en el panorama econ\u00f3mico sugiere la llegada de nuevos paradigmas, desafiando la noci\u00f3n de que las dificultades econ\u00f3micas en Estados Unidos inevitablemente afectan gravemente a M\u00e9xico. Ahora, m\u00e1s que nunca, es crucial para aquellos que operan en los mercados financieros ajustarse a esta nueva realidad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Screenshot<\/figcaption><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

El peso mexicano en el escenario global.<\/strong> De hecho, el peso se ha consolidado como la tercera moneda de pa\u00edses emergentes con mayor intercambio en el mercado global de divisas. Esto significa que la mayor\u00eda de las transacciones se realizan fuera de M\u00e9xico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Volatilidad temporal.<\/strong> Sin embargo, la estabilidad del peso mexicano no est\u00e1 exenta de volatilidad, como lo demuestra un reciente evento en el conflicto de Medio Oriente, que gener\u00f3 una volatilidad del 6% en la cotizaci\u00f3n del tipo de cambio USDMXN durante la sesi\u00f3n overnight del 18 de abril de 2024. Este episodio resalta la sensibilidad del peso mexicano a factores externos. Sin embargo, este movimiento fue temporal y el peso se recuper\u00f3 r\u00e1pidamente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A pesar de esta volatilidad, el informe del COT (Commitment of Traders) no muestra cambios significativos en las posiciones de los participantes en los mercados de futuros y opciones, lo que sugiere que los especuladores siguen comprados y contin\u00faan manteniendo sus posiciones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Es esencial observar el volumen de negociaci\u00f3n\u00a0que se muestra en la siguiente gr\u00e1fica,\u00a0en relaci\u00f3n con los niveles de precio, como se evidencia en la sesi\u00f3n del 19 de abril de 2024 para\u00a0el futuro del peso mexicano. Este an\u00e1lisis revela que la falta de volumen en los m\u00ednimos contribuy\u00f3\u00a0a una fuerte recuperaci\u00f3n del precio del d\u00f3lar desde 18.1565 hasta\u00a016.9058 al cierre del art\u00edculo, desacreditando nuevamente los pron\u00f3sticos pesimistas sobre el colapso inminente del peso mexicano.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Screenshot<\/figcaption><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Gr\u00e1fica cortes\u00eda de <\/em>Tradingview<\/em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Precauciones ante el riesgo cambiario.<\/strong> Si bien el mercado ha establecido un rango de volatilidad entre 16.2598 y 18.4871, es importante tomar precauciones ante el riesgo cambiario, especialmente con las pr\u00f3ximas elecciones en M\u00e9xico y Estados Unidos. Las oportunidades para comprar o vender se encuentran en estos extremos, y no en medio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La fortaleza del peso mexicano presenta una oportunidad para que M\u00e9xico consolide su posici\u00f3n en la econom\u00eda global. Sin embargo, es necesario un manejo responsable de la pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica para aprovechar al m\u00e1ximo esta coyuntura favorable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mant\u00e9ngase informado para un seguimiento preciso en futuras emisiones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Desentra\u00f1ando los movimientos del mercado, inquiriendo en la pol\u00edtica de M\u00e9xico, cuestionando, exponiendo, revelando y razonando.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pedro Tiburcio<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analista Senior de Elliott Wave M\u00e9xico<\/p>\n\n\n\n

@ptiburon twitter\/X<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Por Pedro Tiburcio Analista Financiero El d\u00f3lar estadounidense se debilita frente al peso mexicano, alcanzando…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":109773,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-109770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nEl Quehacer Pol\u00edtico Financiero Desentra\u00f1ando los mercados a trav\u00e9s\/\/\/Pedro Tiburcio\/\/\/El peso mexicano: Un nuevo paradigma econ\u00f3mico? 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