{"id":107017,"date":"2023-12-12T14:37:52","date_gmt":"2023-12-12T14:37:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/?p=107017"},"modified":"2023-12-12T14:37:55","modified_gmt":"2023-12-12T14:37:55","slug":"desentranando-los-movimientos-del-mercado-pedro-tiburcio-oportunidad-de-compra-en-bonos-ante-el-cambio-en-las-tasas-de-interes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/?p=107017","title":{"rendered":"Desentra\u00f1ando los movimientos del mercado\/\/\/Pedro Tiburcio\/\/\/\u00bfOportunidad de Compra en Bonos ante el Cambio en las Tasas de Inter\u00e9s?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Por Pedro Tiburcio<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Analista Financiero<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La tasa de inter\u00e9s a 10 a\u00f1os de Estados Unidos ha captado la atenci\u00f3n de todos los participantes en los mercados financieros, especialmente de los inversionistas en bonos. Como es de conocimiento general, la Reserva Federal (Fed) ha mantenido tasas elevadas como medida para controlar la inflaci\u00f3n, originada por el impacto de la pandemia del COVID-19 en los mercados financieros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En la din\u00e1mica natural de los mercados, cuando se producen ajustes, los grandes inversionistas tienden a liquidar bonos para capitalizar oportunidades en activos de mayor rendimiento, como acciones de empresas o \u00edndices. Sin embargo, en esta ocasi\u00f3n, la situaci\u00f3n no fue tan sencilla. El aumento de las tasas de inter\u00e9s result\u00f3 en la depreciaci\u00f3n de los bonos, dejando a los inversionistas atrapados sin poder vender sus activos a precios favorables. La gr\u00e1fica adjunta a este art\u00edculo ilustra claramente c\u00f3mo la tasa a 10 a\u00f1os, representada por el ticker TNX, ha experimentado un constante aumento desde el 9 de marzo de 2020, abarcando ya tres a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En esta coyuntura, se ha vuelto tendencia la promoci\u00f3n de inversiones en tasas de inter\u00e9s, particularmente en pa\u00edses como M\u00e9xico, donde la tasa supera el 11%. No obstante, como es caracter\u00edstico en los grandes giros del mercado, hasta los inversionistas menos experimentados se suman a esta tendencia. Este fen\u00f3meno no augura bien, ya que la gr\u00e1fica sugiere que el mercado podr\u00eda estar anticipando un posible ajuste a la baja de la tasa de inter\u00e9s por parte de la Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En este escenario, el inversionista menos informado podr\u00eda llegar tarde a la fiesta al invertir en tasas, justo cuando el inversionista m\u00e1s sofisticado deja de hacerlo, aprovechando la probable oportunidad en la compra de bonos a precios atractivos. Un ejemplo de ello es el ETF AGG de bonos corporativos, que ha experimentado un rendimiento del 5% desde que comenz\u00f3 el ajuste de la tasa a 10 a\u00f1os el 23 de octubre de 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Al momento de cerrar este art\u00edculo, la tasa a 10 a\u00f1os se acerca a un nivel de soporte significativo, situ\u00e1ndose en 4.124. Aunque no descartamos una pausa en este punto, la p\u00e9rdida de este nivel podr\u00eda indicar un recorrido hacia la zona de 3.253 como siguiente objetivo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En esta segunda semana de diciembre de 2023, contamos con informaci\u00f3n relevante sobre la pol\u00edtica monetaria de la Fed el mi\u00e9rcoles 13 de diciembre. Se recomienda estar atentos a las actualizaciones en mi red social de X para aprovechar las oportunidades que puedan surgir en los mercados financieros, especialmente&nbsp;en relaci\u00f3n a&nbsp;los bonos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pedro Tiburcio<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Analista Senior de Elliott Wave M\u00e9xico<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">@ptiburon\u00a0twitter\/X<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><div class=\"wpcp-wp-lightbox-host wpcp-advanced-image-lightbox-icon-hover\"><a href=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-15.jpeg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-15.jpeg\" data-thumb=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-15.jpeg\" class=\"ml-lightbox-enabled\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"924\" height=\"516\" src=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-15.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-107019\" srcset=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-15.jpeg 924w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-15-300x168.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-15-768x429.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-15-260x146.jpeg 260w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-15-50x28.jpeg 50w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-15-134x75.jpeg 134w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 924px) 100vw, 924px\" \/><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-15.jpeg\" data-fancybox=\"wpcp-wp-img-107019\" class=\"wpcp-lightbox-trigger wpcp-advanced-image-lightbox-icon wpcp-position-top-right wpcp-advanced-image-lightbox-icon-hover wpcp-global-lightbox-icon wpcp-lightbox-icon--global wpcp-lb-icon-style-default\" data-wpcp-lb-icon-source=\"global\" aria-label=\"Open image in lightbox\" data-thumb-src=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-15-300x168.jpeg\" data-wpcp-lb-single=\"1\"><span class=\"wpcp-icon-container\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\"><path d=\"M17.6585 16.025L14.2437 12.6198C15.1716 11.3338 15.6121 9.7613 15.4871 8.1819C15.362 6.60251 14.6795 5.11847 13.5607 3.99351C12.936 3.36206 12.1916 2.86066 11.3709 2.51845C10.5502 2.17623 9.66952 2 8.77995 2C7.89039 2 7.00969 2.17623 6.18899 2.51845C5.36829 2.86066 4.62395 3.36206 3.99919 3.99351C3.36594 4.61649 2.86312 5.35871 2.51992 6.17708C2.17673 6.99545 2 7.87365 2 8.76068C2 9.64772 2.17673 10.5259 2.51992 11.3443C2.86312 12.1627 3.36594 12.9049 3.99919 13.5279C5.11957 14.6901 6.62279 15.4103 8.23285 15.5562C9.84291 15.7022 11.4517 15.2641 12.7639 14.3224L16.1788 17.7275C16.3849 17.9034 16.6473 18 16.9186 18C17.1899 18 17.4523 17.9034 17.6585 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/coD91N9F\/\">https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/coD91N9F\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><div class=\"wpcp-wp-lightbox-host wpcp-advanced-image-lightbox-icon-hover\"><a href=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-14.jpeg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-14.jpeg\" data-thumb=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-14.jpeg\" class=\"ml-lightbox-enabled\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"920\" height=\"522\" src=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-14.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-107018\" srcset=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-14.jpeg 920w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-14-300x170.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-14-768x436.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-14-257x146.jpeg 257w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-14-50x28.jpeg 50w, https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-14-132x75.jpeg 132w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 920px) 100vw, 920px\" \/><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-14.jpeg\" data-fancybox=\"wpcp-wp-img-107018\" class=\"wpcp-lightbox-trigger wpcp-advanced-image-lightbox-icon wpcp-position-top-right wpcp-advanced-image-lightbox-icon-hover wpcp-global-lightbox-icon wpcp-lightbox-icon--global wpcp-lb-icon-style-default\" data-wpcp-lb-icon-source=\"global\" aria-label=\"Open image in lightbox\" data-thumb-src=\"https:\/\/quehacerpolitico.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-14-300x170.jpeg\" data-wpcp-lb-single=\"1\"><span class=\"wpcp-icon-container\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\"><path d=\"M17.6585 16.025L14.2437 12.6198C15.1716 11.3338 15.6121 9.7613 15.4871 8.1819C15.362 6.60251 14.6795 5.11847 13.5607 3.99351C12.936 3.36206 12.1916 2.86066 11.3709 2.51845C10.5502 2.17623 9.66952 2 8.77995 2C7.89039 2 7.00969 2.17623 6.18899 2.51845C5.36829 2.86066 4.62395 3.36206 3.99919 3.99351C3.36594 4.61649 2.86312 5.35871 2.51992 6.17708C2.17673 6.99545 2 7.87365 2 8.76068C2 9.64772 2.17673 10.5259 2.51992 11.3443C2.86312 12.1627 3.36594 12.9049 3.99919 13.5279C5.11957 14.6901 6.62279 15.4103 8.23285 15.5562C9.84291 15.7022 11.4517 15.2641 12.7639 14.3224L16.1788 17.7275C16.3849 17.9034 16.6473 18 16.9186 18C17.1899 18 17.4523 17.9034 17.6585 17.7275C18.1138 17.16 18.1138 16.5925 17.6585 16.025ZM5.59278 12.0523C5.16258 11.6298 4.82094 11.1263 4.58774 10.5709C4.35455 10.0156 4.23446 9.41951 4.23446 8.81744C4.23446 8.21536 4.35455 7.6193 4.58774 7.06394C4.82094 6.50859 5.16258 6.00503 5.59278 5.58257C6.01644 5.15359 6.52144 4.81292 7.07838 4.58039C7.63532 4.34786 8.23308 4.22811 8.83687 4.22811C9.44066 4.22811 10.0384 4.34786 10.5954 4.58039C11.1523 4.81292 11.6573 5.15359 12.081 5.58257C12.5112 6.00503 12.8528 6.50859 13.086 7.06394C13.3192 7.6193 13.4393 8.21536 13.4393 8.81744C13.4393 9.41951 13.3192 10.0156 13.086 10.5709C12.8528 11.1263 12.5112 11.6298 12.081 12.0523C11.6573 12.4813 11.1523 12.822 10.5954 13.0545C10.0384 13.287 9.44066 13.4068 8.83687 13.4068C8.23308 13.4068 7.63532 13.287 7.07838 13.0545C6.52144 12.822 6.01644 12.4813 5.59278 12.0523Z\" \/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Link&nbsp;de gr\u00e1fico, cortes\u00eda de&nbsp;Tradingview<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/U2VPYnbQ\/\">https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/U2VPYnbQ\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As\u00ed el Quehacer Pol\u00edtico de los mercados financieros a trav\u00e9s del an\u00e1lisis t\u00e9cnico con Pedro Tiburcio, desentra\u00f1ando los movimientos del mercado, inquiriendo en la pol\u00edtica de M\u00e9xico, cuestionando, exponiendo, revelando y razonando.Es cuanto.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Por Pedro Tiburcio Analista Financiero La tasa de inter\u00e9s a 10 a\u00f1os de Estados Unidos&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":107020,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-107017","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Desentra\u00f1ando los movimientos del mercado\/\/\/Pedro Tiburcio\/\/\/\u00bfOportunidad de Compra en Bonos ante el Cambio en las Tasas de Inter\u00e9s? -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, 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